Despite the record fast rise in interest rates, the global economy has not yet come off the rails. It is certainly slowing but proving to be remarkably resilient to the point a ‘Goldilocks’ outcome is now consensus. Some commentators warn global recession is still coming and the transmission impact of higher rates is still working its way through economies. This is certainly the case but it is a sensitive timing argument. For instance, US households that are locked into 2% 30year term loans remain unimpacted (though don’t want to move home and lose the benefit), NZ households that were locked into 3% 5year rates are still immune.

Posted: Fri 19 Apr 2024